Institute of Mathematics


Modul:   STA671  Kolloquium über anwendungsorientierte Statistik

The Statistical Assessment of Replication Success - A Case for Reverse-​Bayes

Talk by Prof. Dr. Leonhard Held

Date: 12.11.21  Time: 15.15 - 16.15  Room: ETH HG G 19.1

Replicability of research findings is crucial to the credibility of all empirical domains of science. Large-​scale replication projects are increasingly conducted in order to assess to what extent claims of new discoveries can be confirmed in independent replication studies. However, there is no established standard how to assess replication success and in practice many different approaches are used. We argue that Reverse-​Bayes methods have a key role to play in the assessment of replication success. The main idea is to reverse Bayes' Theorem to determine a sceptical prior that would make the original finding no longer convincing. Sufficient incompatability of the sceptical prior and the replication study result is then used to quantify the degree of replication success. We show how this approach is directly related to the relative effect size, the ratio of the replication to the original effect estimate. This perspective leads to a new proposal to recalibrate the assessment of replication success.